Container volumes fall as retailers bid to avoid peak season shipping surcharges
US container imports are falling ahead of next month’s traditional peak shipping season, as a result of retailers’ attempts to avoid shipping surcharges and concerns over consumer confidence. Import volumes in July were up 25% on last year, at 1.38m teu, but are predicted to gradually contract, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said: “There is sufficient evidence to suggest that importers anticipated the peak season and bought early – partly as a result of a fear of lack of capacity and
containers, but to avoid the hefty peak season surcharges announced by all the carriers. “We remain cautious about growth over the next 12 months. The good news is that the influx of new capacity will continue to put downward pressure on freight rates.” However, volumes in the coming months are still predicted to show significant growth, compared with 2009 equivalents.
Estimates of 1.35 million teu throughput in August would constitute growth of some 17% on last year. Imports via US major retail container ports are predicted to show 16% and 9% year-on-year growth in September and October, respectively, to reach 1.32 million teu and 1.3 million teu, while growth of 11% (to 1.2 million teu) is expected in November.
NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said: “Retailers have stocked up early in much of their holiday merchandise in order to avoid some of the supply chain disruptions seen earlier in the year. “Cargo is still coming in, but the key question for sales will be what happens with employment and other factors that affect consumer confidence.
“Retailers are hoping they’ve hit the right balance of supply and demand.” US imports in the first half of 2010 are estimated at 6.9 million teu, up 17% on the same period last year, while volumes for the full year are now forecast to reach 14.5 million teu, up from 2009’s 12.7 million teu, which was the lowest total since 2003.
Source: Mike King, IFW News, 09 September 2010