Growing retail demand proves economic revival still on track, says NRF
Container imports at major US ports are expected to increase by 11%, year on year, this month. According to figures produced by analyst Hackett Associates for the US National Retail Federation (NRF), volumes are expected to hit 1.19 million teu by the end of the month.
February volumes, traditionally the lowest of the year, were estimated to have jumped 12%, year on year, to reach 1.12 million teu, while January’s volumes grew 12% to 1.2 million teu.
If the volume prediction for February is correct, it will be the 15th month in a row to show a year-on-year improvement, after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-on-year declines.
NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said: “These numbers show solid increases over last year and are evidence that our nation’s economic recovery is continuing to build momentum.
“Increases in imports are a clear sign that retailers expect sales to continue to climb in the next several months.”
However, Hackett Associates’ founder, Ben Hackett, said the recent political turmoil in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and elsewhere was driving-up oil prices and were likely to increase shipping costs.
He said: “Oil supply is going down as nations have dropped out of the production cycle. Freight rates have been decreasing, but that will not last long as fuel costs are factored in.”
US import volumes for the first half of 2011 are forecast to hit 7.5 million teu, up 9% on the first half of 2010.
However, the figures produced by Hackett Associates contrast with predictions by rival analyst Box Trade Intelligence which predict transpacific trade growth of 1% this year, followed by 5% growth in 2012.
Its report argues that the US housing market appears flat, and says that years of strong growth – such as 2010 – tend to be followed by a weaker year.
Damian Brett | Thu, 10 Mar 2011 . IFW News